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中国房地产基金有机会抄底俄楼市

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月12日 07:18:57
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(  去)(俄)(楼)(市)(“抄)(底)(”
  对)(于)(冒)(险)(的)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(基)(金)(而)(言)(,卢)(布)(暴)(跌)(跌)(出)(了)(俄)(罗)(斯)(楼)(市)(的)(抄)(底)(机)(会)(
  俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(明)(天)(是)(地)(狱)(还)(是)(天)(堂)(?对)(于)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,西)(方)(分)(析)(师)(和)(精)(明)(的)(中)(国)(商)(人)(回)(答)(显)(然)(不)(同)(。
  12月)(22日)(,卢)(布)(跌)(破)(1美)(元)(兑)(55的)(水)(平)(。几)(天)(前)(,这)(一)(比)(率)(曾)(一)(度)(超)(过)(1:80。银)(行)(网)(站)(崩)(溃)(,居)(民)(深)(夜)(抢)(购)(,商)(店)(关)(门)(惜)(售)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(街)(头)(已)(是)(一)(派)(萧)(瑟)(。
  在)(多)(数)(西)(方)(分)(析)(师)(眼)(里)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(厄)(运)(远)(未)(结)(束)(,未)(来)(将)(是)(一)(幅)(末)(日)(图)(景)(。
  但)(对)(于)(冒)(险)(的)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(基)(金)(而)(言)(,这)(是)(一)(门)(关)(系)(到)(抄)(底)(俄)(罗)(斯)(楼)(市)(的)(大)(生)(意)(。卢)(布)(暴)(跌)(,已)(经)(跌)(出)(了)(俄)(罗)(斯)(楼)(市)(的)(抄)(底)(机)(会)(。
  西)(方)(看)(空)(:未)(来)(继)(续)(恶)(化)(
  消)(费)(和)(投)(资)(缩)(减)(,通)(胀)(不)(断)(高)(企)(,央)(行)(信)(心)(动)(摇)(;新)(年)(之)(后)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(银)(行)(将)(向)(政)(府)(求)(助)(,超)(市)(货)(架)(将)(空)(空)(如)(也)(。
  这)(幅)(末)(日)(图)(景)(,就)(是)(咨)(询)(机)(构)(“宏)(观)(经)(济)(顾)(问)(”的)(分)(析)(师)(克)(里)(斯)(·威)(弗)((ChrisWeafer)对)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(未)(来)(看)(法)(。威)(伟)(断)(言)(,未)(来)(6个)(月)(俄)(经)(济)(将)(明)(显)(恶)(化)(。
  一)(个)(佐)(证)(是)(商)(家)(的)(严)(重)(惜)(售)(。为)(了)(应)(对)(挑)(战)(,一)(些)(供)(应)(商)(暂)(停)(了)(供)(应)(,静)(待)(物)(价)(上)(涨)(。有)(些)(商)(店)(干)(脆)(关)(闭)(了)(店)(面)(——苹)(果)(停)(止)(了)(在)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(线)(上)(销)(售)(;宜)(家)(也)(暂)(停)(了)(厨)(房)(和)(家)(用)(电)(气)(的)(销)(售)(,并)(警)(告)(说)(网)(上)(价)(格)(可)(能)(与)(实)(体)(店)(不)(同)(;欧)(宝)(和)(雪)(佛)(兰)(也)(不)(再)(向)(经)(销)(商)(供)(货)(。
  更)(严)(重)(的)(是)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(还)(在)(蔓)(延)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(媒)(体)(表)(示)(,Zara、Topshop和)(CK等)(饮)(料)(和)(服)(饰)(商)(家)(都)(准)(备)(避)(免)(亏)(损)(销)(售)(。观)(察)(家)(预)(测)(,许)(多)(西)(方)(品)(牌)(将)(很)(快)(在)(俄)(罗)(斯)(市)(场)(上)(消)(失)(。
  已)(经)(接)(近)(10%的)(通)(胀)(也)(可)(能)(会)(在)(未)(来)(数)(月)(达)(到)(15%,这)(将)(会)(损)(害)(俄)(罗)(斯)(人)(的)(购)(买)(力)(。2014年)(前)(11个)(月)(,俄)(居)(民)(真)(实)(收)(入)(与)(2013年)(相)(比)(已)(经)(有)(所)(下)(降)(。
  俄)(罗)(斯)(中)(央)(银)(行)(也)(没)(有)(乐)(观)(的)(消)(息)(。他)(们)(认)(为)(,如)(果)(国)(际)(原)(油)(价)(格)(稳)(定)(在)(目)(前)(水)(平)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(经)(济)(可)(能)(还)(会)(遭)(受)(一)(次)(巨)(大)(的)(收)(缩)(。
  CapitalEconomics的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(经)(济)(学)(家)(威)(廉)(·杰)(克)(逊)((WilliamJackson)表)(示)(:“事)(态)(正)(在)(快)(速)(发)(展)(,现)(在)(有)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(迹)(象)(显)(示)(货)(币)(危)(机)(正)(波)(及)(到)(银)(行)(部)(门)(。”
  俄)(罗)(斯)(金)(融)(体)(系)(尤)(其)(脆)(弱)(,由)(于)(西)(方)(的)(制)(裁)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(国)(有)(的)(大)(型)(银)(行)(和)(中)(小)(银)(行)(机)(构)(都)(无)(法)(在)(西)(方)(融)(资)(。当)(地)(时)(间)(12月)(19日)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(国)(家)(杜)(马)(紧)(急)(通)(过)(一)(项)(法)(律)(草)(案)(,批)(准)(向)(该)(国)(银)(行)(业)(提)(供)(总)(额)(高)(达)(1万)(亿)(卢)(布)((约)(合)(165亿)(美)(元)()的)(资)(本)(支)(持)(。受)(此)(影)(响)(,卢)(布)(汇)(率)(19日)(涨)(幅)(一)(度)(超)(过)(3%。
  面)(对)(危)(机)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(总)(统)(普)(京)(表)(达)(了)(勇)(敢)(面)(对)(危)(机)(的)(立)(场)(。在)(18日)(的)(年)(度)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(,他)(表)(示)(俄)(罗)(斯)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(“不)(可)(避)(免)(”,但)(可)(能)(最)(长)(需)(要)(2年)(时)(间)(。
  中)(企)(看)(多)(:楼)(市)(出)(现)(机)(会)(
  就)(在)(西)(方)(分)(析)(师)(纷)(纷)(看)(空)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(同)(时)(,中)(国)(投)(资)(者)(正)(跃)(跃)(欲)(试)(准)(备)(“抄)(底)(”俄)(罗)(斯)(楼)(市)(。
  道)(合)(金)(泽)(组)(合)(基)(金)(董)(事)(钱)(军)(就)(是)(其)(中)(一)(个)(。他)(告)(诉)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(,与)(之)(合)(作)(的)(房)(地)(产)(基)(金)(正)(在)(积)(极)(调)(查)(投)(资)(俄)(罗)(斯)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(机)(会)(。
  与)(西)(方)(分)(析)(师)(一)(样)(,钱)(军)(也)(有)(一)(番)(分)(析)(。钱)(军)(认)(为)(,在)(宏)(观)(层)(面)(,卢)(布)(贬)(值)(只)(是)(暂)(时)(的)(。
  信)(心)(来)(自)(历)(史)(比)(较)(。他)(认)(为)(,相)(比)(1998年)(违)(约)(时)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(当)(下)(的)(经)(济)(实)(力)(已)(经)(完)(全)(不)(同)(,“现)(在)(俄)(罗)(斯)(拥)(有)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(、主)(权)(基)(金)(的)(能)(力)(,以)(及)(俄)(本)(身)(经)(济)(实)(力)(都)(与)(当)(年)(不)(可)(同)(日)(而)(语)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(民)(生)(和)(经)(济)(结)(构)(也)(比)(以)(前)(好)(很)(多)(。”
  对)(于)(这)(一)(轮)(汇)(率)(震)(荡)(,钱)(军)(认)(为)(只)(是)(一)(次)(偶)(然)(事)(件)(。原)(因)(是)(两)(方)(面)(,“一)(个)(是)(欧)(美)(制)(裁)(,这)(是)(最)(主)(要)(的)(影)(响)(;二)(是)(能)(源)(价)(格)(下)(降)(,两)(者)(叠)(加)(造)(成)(了)(卢)(布)(贬)(值)(。”
  卢)(布)(贬)(值)(是)(偶)(然)(,欧)(盟)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(“双)(输)(”制)(裁)(不)(会)(长)(远)(则)(是)(必)(然)(。钱)(军)(分)(析)(:“俄)(罗)(斯)(经)(济)(不)(好)(对)(欧)(美)(也)(不)(好)(,欧)(洲)(受)(害)(尤)(其)(严)(重)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(和)(欧)(洲)(关)(系)(很)(紧)(密)(,(俄)(经)(济)(受)(挫)()对)(德)(国)(的)(能)(源)(供)(给)(影)(响)(很)(大)(,更)(不)(要)(说)(奥)(地)(利)(等)(传)(统)(关)(系)(就)(紧)(密)(的)(国)(家)(。所)(以)(欧)(盟)(内)(心)(还)(是)(比)(较)(纠)(结)(的)(。”
  宏)(观)(层)(面)(有)(了)(保)(障)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(楼)(市)(的)(微)(观)(机)(会)(也)(就)(出)(现)(了)(。
  钱)(军)(发)(现)(,到)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(中)(国)(人)(越)(来)(越)(多)(。“游)(客)(多)(、在)(俄)(留)(学)(生)(多)(、展)(会)(也)(越)(来)(越)(多)(,这)(三)(个)(方)(面)(有)(很)(多)(机)(会)(,所)(以)(需)(求)(层)(面)(很)(好)(。”
  除)(此)(之)(外)(,还)(有)(本)(地)(刚)(需)(。钱)(军)(介)(绍)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(人)(特)(别)(喜)(欢)(在)(莫)(斯)(科)(、圣)(彼)(得)(堡)(等)(主)(要)(城)(市)(买)(房)(,“就)(像)(中)(国)(人)(喜)(欢)(在)(北)(京)(、上)(海)(买)(房)(一)(样)(,这)(是)(一)(种)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(”。
  从)(全)(球)(来)(看)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(并)(不)(便)(宜)(。以)(莫)(斯)(科)(大)(学)(麻)(雀)(山)(附)(近)(为)(例)(,其)(房)(价)(是)(仅)(次)(于)(莫)(斯)(科)(市)(中)(心)(的)(第)(二)(高)(,每)(平)(方)(米)(10万)(元)(人)(民)(币)(左)(右)(。租)(房)(同)(样)(昂)(贵)(,地)(铁)(站)(附)(近)(一)(个)(合)(租)(小)(卧)(室)(月)(租)(金)(为)(800美)(元)(。如)(果)(住)(酒)(店)(的)(话)(,国)(内)(300元)(价)(位)(的)(房)(间)(,在)(莫)(斯)(科)(需)(要)(500美)(元)(。
  钱)(军)(因)(此)(正)(在)(考)(虑)(开)(发)(短)(租)(项)(目)(的)(操)(作)(模)(式)(。“一)(般)(来)(说)(,一)(个)(城)(市)(展)(会)(开)(办)(期)(间)(,酒)(店)(价)(格)(都)(会)(上)(涨)(,例)(如)(广)(交)(会)(时)(广)(州)(酒)(店)(价)(格)(就)(会)(翻)(2倍)(。中)(国)(人)(对)(吃)(住)(价)(格)(很)(敏)(感)(,他)(们)(会)(认)(为)(住)(酒)(店)(不)(如)(短)(租)(;同)(时)(,中)(国)(旅)(游)(团)(租)(房)(现)(在)(也)(是)(一)(种)(潮)(流)(。房)(地)(产)(基)(金)(介)(入)(收)(购)(,将)(房)(产)(化)(整)(为)(零)(,比)(如)(分)(隔)(租)(赁)(给)(中)(国)(学)(生)(等)(,是)(一)(个)(较)(好)(的)(运)(营)(增)(值)(模)(式)(。”
  钱)(军)(说)(,相)(关)(地)(产)(基)(金)(在)(欧)(洲)(其)(他)(国)(家)(也)(实)(践)(过)(类)(似)(模)(式)(,目)(前)(房)(地)(产)(基)(金)(在)(国)(内)(也)(面)(临)(市)(场)(低)(潮)(,“走)(出)(去)(”正)(是)(转)(型)(的)(可)(行)(方)(向)(之)(一)(。
  钱)(军)(以)(及)(一)(些)(房)(地)(产)(基)(金)(已)(经)(雇)(请)(俄)(罗)(斯)(公)(司)(进)(行)(了)(市)(场)(调)(研)(,得)(到)(的)(回)(馈)(很)(好)(:卢)(布)(贬)(值)(,房)(子)(也)(贬)(值)(了)(,这)(是)(一)(种)(正)(相)(关)(的)(关)(系)(。
  “现)(在)(是)(一)(个)(机)(会)(性)(的)(折)(价)(买)(入)(机)(会)(。大)(的)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(方)(向)(很)(好)(,微)(观)(层)(面)(房)(地)(产)(的)(需)(求)(也)(存)(在)(,应)(该)(抓)(紧)(机)(会)(投)(资)(,目)(前)(投)(资)(项)(目)(正)(在)(落)(实)(当)(中)(。”钱)(军)(说)(。
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